Predicting Stock Market Bubbles, The Money Queen, AI Global Cybersecurity Gap, Best Hiking Trails, Seattle Trip
Another TBB post featuring the most eclectic links around the web such as predicting stock market bubbles, the Money Queen, AI global cybersecurity gap, the best hiking trails, our Seattle trip, US stock market average annual returns, the current state of AI, winners and losers of the Iran war energy shock, shocking African funerals, why airlines continue to go bankrupt, world’s busiest airports, the best photography links and of course always all of the most important developments in the crazy world of frequent flyer miles and points at the lower half of the post. And much more. Enjoy the weekend.
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BLOG HOUSEKEEPING
This is truly a one man labor of love operation, enjoy it while it lasts.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.” – Peter Lynch
MUST READ GEMS
There is so much bubble talk these days. And I get asked this question a lot: “Is it a bubble?”. And Jason Zweig over at the Wall Street Journal answered it in the best way possible, must read:
The whole article is a must read. You can skip everything else if you are pressed for time and just read the articles in this section. If I were you though I would not skip much in this once a week blog post. But I am biased I guess.
Just a few gem quotes:
If the stock market’s a bubble, that’s dangerous. If you’re positive it is—or isn’t—a bubble, that could be even more dangerous.
…bubblespotting is a lot harder than it seems. If identifying a bubble were easy, then we all could do it. And, if we all could do it, then a bubble wouldn’t form in the first place.
The real danger of bubblespotting is believing you can do it…But stocks aren’t a toggle switch that you flip on or off. Few investors should have either all or none of their money in stocks. The future is rarely certain enough for that. Now is a good time to make sure you’re diversified, holding not just the S&P 500 but smaller stocks and international stocks as well. You should also check whether you can rebalance—trimming some winning assets, such as large U.S. stocks, to add some recent laggards like bonds. Also be on the alert for any signs your financial adviser is sure we’re in—or not in—a bubble. They don’t know any better than you do.
PERSONAL FINANCE
In investing you hear a lot how stocks return 8% to 10% annually on average. The key word is average. Actually, returns can and do usually vary all over the place almost every year. On average, you almost never get returns between 8% to 10%! Check out the chart below with annual returns of the S&P 500 since 1950. In fact, only just four years returned between 8% and 10%, that’s it. It is actually just six years that had returns between 5% and 10%. Found HERE:
CRYPTO/TECH/SCAMS
This article had a strong impact in me. No, I am not into farming. But this guy had a really big following on YouTube and one day he decided he had enough and posted a goodbye video. It must be so hard to do this. I have been contemplating the end here and I guess I am just not quite there…yet? Signing off in a world of what’s next.
We live in a world of such duplicity, lies, greed and avarice that seeing everyday people do everyday things is such a nice break…These creators become a quiet, steady presence in your life…They’re the opposite of the announcement economy…Someone is just trying to grow something and be honest about how hard it is…When that disappears, you lose a small refuge. Worth a moment of sadness. Near the end of his final video, Pete said two words. “I’m sorry.” He knew people relied on that rhythm. He felt the weight of leaving. He carried it. That’s character. [Well, I sure don’t have hundreds of thousands of readers and no income stream so it should be easier to end my blog I guess. But yet, I don’t want to walk away from all nine of you lol]
One of the biggest fraudsters out there still free is going to go for what fraudsters in this grifting age do. And that is ask for a pardon of course: Jho Low, Fugitive Behind 1MDB Scandal, Seeks Pardon From Trump. Malaysian financier recently submitted a pardon request, some 10 years after he disappeared amid a $4.5 billion scandal.
Anyone can be anything they want online. Some time ago a blog reader had a quote that went something like ‘on the internet, nobody knows you are a dog’ with a picture of a dog tweeting away. And they can just make shit up selling fake expertise and, wait for it, become influencers. Meaning, they go on tricking innocent victims who fall for their shit. And here is another one who developed a marketing machine calling herself the Money Queen smh: Who Trusts The Money Queen?Amanda Frances made millions helping women manifest their dream lives. Some former clients think they just funded hers.
She regularly drops new video courses with names like “Turning Shit Into Gold,” “Become a Money-Making Coach,” and “Money Mentality Makeover,” her foundational course, which she values at more than $26,000 but can be yours for just $2,999. “Spend as though you are supported, make purchases as though more is available for you, buy things as though you are a wealthy woman,” Frances writes in Rich As F*ck. [Vomited after this quote in the first few paragraphs and after I went through the article I swear I must have lost at least five pounds! Look, you can read my blog for free and I guarantee you will get way ahead of these victims falling for this shit]
I have been getting some very sophisticated scam emails lately. And I have no doubt they are all AI generated. I think this is only going to get worse, so brace yourselves: The global cybersecurity gap deepens as AI-powered attacks surge. Restricted access to powerful defensive AI tools like Anthropic’s Mythos leaves some companies, central banks, and nations more vulnerable than others.
AI-driven cyberattacks are surging because models can now weaponize software vulnerabilities within hours of their discovery.
A massive global shortage of cybersecurity professionals is compounding the risk of an “AI bugocalypse.”
With the interconnected nature of the global digital economy, leaving smaller institutions and nations vulnerable means that no one is truly safe from the cascading effects of a breach.
In 2018, the median time from a vulnerability being disclosed to the first exploitation was 771 days, so organizations had over two years to fix it. By 2024, that window had reduced to four hours; last year, most exploited vulnerabilities were weaponized before they were even publicly disclosed.
It is kind of weird that in the scramble for more oil…renewables are winning. And China…For now at least, we shall see what happens from here.
Unless they have large stores of oil and gas, the best way for countries to become energy independent is to invest more in renewables, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric energy. And the state that dominates the supply chain for these technologies is China. Beijing has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in building up large clean energy firms, and these companies are now exporting their wares across the world. The United States, by contrast, recently abandoned investment in clean tech and redoubled its spending on fossil fuels that few countries want. Beijing, then, may emerge from the war in Iran as its winner—and Washington as its ultimate loser.
And shocked to learn this about Pakistan:
Pakistan is not as dependent on fossil fuel imports, largely thanks to an explosion in renewable energy. The share of Pakistani power that comes from solar energy went from under three percent in 2020 to over 32 percent by the end of 2025, one of the fastest energy transitions anywhere in the world.
ODDZ & ENDZ
Very important article for youngsters who had everything provided by their parents and never really felt the existential dread needing to survive: The Job You Don’t Love Might Be the One That Saves You.Why purpose doesn’t have to start at work and what the “wrong” career can quietly build for you. My purpose after college was to find a job that will get me a green card to stay in this country. And after suffering through seven tax seasons in a suffocating environment such as the Final Big Four (formerly Big Eight) CPA firms I found my purpose I guess starting my own boutique wealth management firm. And the knowledge and experience (and money set aside) suffering for seven years was invaluable so embrace the suffering youngsters 🙂
I have posted about how crazy funerals can get at some African countries some time ago. But this article gets deeper and you will be shocked: How funerals keep Africa poor. Why the poorest people in the world spend fortunes burying their dead.
A modest, mid-level funeral in Ghana costs about $5,000 U.S. dollars; a “befitting” one can easily cost $15,000 or $20,000. And all this in a country with a median income of about $1,500 per year.
In the last century we’ve groped toward stability through government-approved cartels; then dismantled them; then approved their tacit reinstatement through private contracts; and now the empty-core syndrome has at last raised the question of direct government ownership of a major airline. We’ve admitted to ourselves, by now, what we’re still not able to say aloud: that there’s no such thing as a competitive equilibrium for the airline industry. The only question that remains is who is going to be left holding the bag.
This blog started with a focus on miles and points and travel. It has evolved since then. Everything below deals with the hobby of collecting frequent flyer miles and points and maximizing your travel experiences. If you are not interested, you can stop here, thank you.
Register for the latest Choice Hotels promotion HERE. Stay two and get enough points for a $50 gift card for gas. Actually, it is 8,000 Choice points so definitely go for the points here. Then again, with the price of gas these days, it does make sense to market this for the gas indeed.
I will make this section increasingly smaller. Because my posts are too long and nobody clicks on these links anyway…
150k AMEX Marriott Bonvoy Business PLUS $125 Statement Credit: $125 Annual fee, minimum spend $8,000 in the first six months. For more info on the card’s benefits click HERE.
185k CHASE IHG One Rewards Premier:$99 annual fee. 150,000 points after spending $3,000 in the first three months. And another 35,000 points after spending a total of $6,000 in the first six months.
125k CHASE IHG One Rewards Traveler: No annual fee. 90,000 bonus points after spending $2,000 in the first three months. And another 35,000 points after spending a total of $4,000 in the first six months.
150k CAPITAL ONE Venture Business: $95 annual fee. 75,000 miles when they spend $7,500 in the first 3 months, plus an additional 75,000 miles when they spend $30,000 in the first 6 months. Two separate $50 credits: travel credit and advertising/software credit. 2x on every purchase and 5x on hotels and rental cars booked on the Capital One travel portal. $120 Global Entry/TSAPreCheck credit. Shockingly, this card will NOT report to personal credit bureaus.
50k CAPITAL ONE VentureOne Business: No annual fee. $4,500 minimum spend in first three months. 1.5x on every purchase and 5x on hotels and rental cars booked on the Capital One travel portal.
As High As 200,000 Points on the AMEX Business Gold after spending $15k in the first three months
100,000 BANK OF AMERICA Atmos Summit after spending $6,500 in the first three months. And a 50% flight discount voucher
80,000 BANK OF AMERICA Atmos Ascent after spending $4,000 in the first four months. And a 50% flight discount voucher
85,000 BANK OF AMERICA Atmos Business after spending $5,500 in the first three months
75k CITI AAdvantage Business World Elite MasterCard
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MY ACTION AND BLOG BUZZING
I have not done much other than trying to keep up with everything going on. And continuing to pay the crew working on wrecking renovating our house. It is coming together, aiming to finish everything by mid June. Sadly it is going to interfere with the World Cup starting June 11.
The miles and points/travel hacking hobby is dying. The recent devaluations by Hyatt and Air Canada Aeroplan hurt bigly. But the change that hurts the most and is slowly settling us all into a new reality is the restrictions on getting cards from Chase bank. So the transfers to United and Hyatt will slowly vanish. And we are all going to pay for travel going forward. If you are one of those non normal people who are heavily into this by screwing around with advanced “techniques” (that have gone underground) you are also impacted because finding the award space previously plentiful (or at least tolerable) is just much harder. In a way, it is kind of liberating just looking at the prices in Google Flight alerts you set and say “you know, I can afford that” instead of torturing ourselves trying to book using our miles. Chase is huge so the bank doesn’t care and is now pushing the knife on our backs deeper.
Many creators are also pivoting. Simply because the revenue from credit card sales is going down. Both total volume sold and per credit card. We all know many former hobbyists who went on to work at The Points Guy (and almost everyone has been let go or moved on from there). I think the only one left in that joint is Mommy Points. But you know what is the ultimate sign of this hobby running its course? Seeing former hobbyists going to work in companies that directly run rewards programs. And they are inflicting the pain on us from within while having the audacity to think they are still one of us (looking at you Richard Kerr at Bilt) and bracing for the hurt over at Air France Flying Blue who just hired Tiffany Funk from One Mile at a Time to be its CEO. Kiss goodbye to the sweet spots in that program by the way, it is a matter of time. Anyway…
I haven’t seen a movie lately, I look at what is showing and I just lose interest.
The Detroit Pistons imploded in Game 5 against the Cleveland Cavs at home after losing a 9 point lead in the last three minutes of the game. Likely going down at Cleveland in Game 6. Great season but…
We had a wonderful time in Seattle with our daughter over Mother’s Day weekend. Both Delta and Alaska Airlines flights were just fine. Two nights at the Hyatt Regency were fine and then moved to The Thompson for one night. I used two Free Night Certificates and 15,000 World of Hyatt points for the three nights. Because…this is what I do. For a little bit longer I guess. Both great locations. Free parking as Globalist is great. The stays were fine, no suite upgrades and just nothing spectacular. I did not even bother taking pics or videos for Instagram and YouTube, just not cut out to be a frequent poster there I guess. I spend enough time producing this blog to post once a week. At some point I will post some pics on Instagram. When I get to it. After staying in two Thompson properties (the other one in Chicago) I realize I am just not a fan of this brand. And I am no fan of Kimpton hotels in the IHG program. And W in Marriott Bonvoy. Let me keep going and add Andaz to this list (my wife loves Andaz by the way). In all these brands I have had consistently bad or subpar experiences. It is what it is.
Just a few pics from the Seattle trip.
The Thompson hotel is just steps away…Lovely outing at this parkAmazing views in the Ebey’s Landing hiking trek
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Good links about bubbles and the dismal state of points / miles.
Given how much the airlines earn from their rewards program via
credit cards, it will be interesting to see what happens
when the rewards aren’t worth chasing ….
V
VickyMay 15, 2026
I’m kind of relieved that my balances are just about at rock bottom and unlikely to rise to previous levels. I’m about ready to call time on the game for us. We are currently on an Asian vacation, only decided a week before departure we were doing it and somehow we managed to find redemptions for 5/7 required flights in business or first. By time we get home in June that will wrap up Hyatt Globalist for another year. We’ve even managed to book Singapore business class to Europe in April 2027 and a week in London at Hyatt on points. So figure we are going out on a high, it’s been fun but time to focus on more important things. What I find most annoying about the Hyatt devaluations etc has been the ever decreasing promotions, not giving an opportunity to earn bonus points and as for the so called targeted promotions never had a sniff of any in our household yet seems the same people get targeted over and over.
C
Carl PietrantonioMay 15, 2026
Woot! Great pics and a LOT of good reading to fill the weekend and even into the next week. Again, great to meet you! Ebey’s landing is a really nice area and to be honest, I like pretty much all of Whidbey Island. I’m lucky to live near enough to go now and then.
The points and miles thing is getting tougher and I am now focusing on earning as much for the challenge to maximize my spending for the sport of it versus the need for the points. Mainly transferable ones now with a close focus on Citi. This kinda balances with the slowdown on traveling as I get older.
Thanks for doing all the work on the blog, I, and I know many others, really appreciate it!
N
NickPFDMay 15, 2026
On the topic of Greek Dad job supervisors: 30-some years ago I worked as a busboy at a seafood restaurant owned by two Greek brothers, John and Nick. Nick sold out a while ago to John, who is still there. I heard John’s getting ready to retire, so I stopped in to say hi last weekend. John gave me an enthusiastic hug and talked my ear off for about half an hour on all sorts of things and caught me up on everybody else who worked there when I was there (one guy who worked there around that time is now a key assistant for Christopher Nolan). He sent me home with some baklava. It was great to see him!
Anyway, this may or may not have something to do with my soft spot for blogs run by cranky old Greeks…
G
GeorgeTBBAuthorMay 16, 2026
@ DML:
>>>>>>>>>> it will be interesting to see what happens when the rewards aren’t worth chasing I think we may have reached that point
Yep, I think we are reaching that point if everything remains in the same trajectory. And I am not seeing anything out there that can stop this secular trend. Unless, something like a virus…oh wait, Ebola is back right after that hantavirus one…
@ Vicky: Still managed “5/7 required flights in business or first”. And Singapore business and a whole week in London in Hyatts, wow! I need to retire to get on a spending spree because…with my dedicated earning practices it is really hard getting under 4 million banked miles/points, sad lol. I hear you about the lack of Hyatt promotions. I think that applies to pretty much across the hotels landscape. It happens when they get guests paying what they ask.
@ Carl: Yeah, Whidbey island was very nice, lots of nature and that hiking along the coast was superb. There was another little town we stopped in to look for lunch but the limited restaurants had lines and I just can’t wait in lines to eat. Felt very touristy, there was a small shop supposedly selling sushi and I swear the owner just decided to do this one day to sell way overprice stuff that looked like sushi to desperate hungry tourists, we passed.
Can’t believe I am still here blogging, I say this to myself every day.
@ NickPFD: Nice story, thanks! I am coming to terms with terms like “crankly old Greeks” LOL.
Also, how about them Detroit Pistons beating the Cavs in Cleveland to force Game 7 wow!
N
Nick @ PFDMay 16, 2026
I’m old, and you’re a little older than me, so I can call you old.
Although a few years ago my wife’s 100-year-old grandfather reminded us that we’re not THAT old, so there’s some perspective.
Anyway, everyone please support your local restauranteurs and / or bloggers.
G
GeorgeTBBAuthorMay 18, 2026
As we get older, what we previously thought what “old” is not the same 🙂
S
SeanMay 16, 2026
W has never been my vibe either, and the brand is all about vibes. W Chicago is not ideal for the night before a marathon. W Rome in the off season was ok, but still not for me. I read an article somewhere about the history and re-brand. W NYC was a hip party spot where the Hilton sisters often frequented.
G
GeorgeTBBAuthorMay 18, 2026
Thanks for confirming. The W is definitely on the top of my list where I had consistently bad stays so I now avoid it all together
G
GrantMay 17, 2026
Good morning George, thanks for linking to my passport post. I really like the new thick plastic passport photo page and am looking forward to using it at those automated passport gates. If only I had an international trip planned…
Hope you and your family are doing well and have some fun summer travel plans.
G
GeorgeTBBAuthorMay 18, 2026
Well, plans are grounded and so were the Detroit Pistons last night laying a mega egg in Game 7 at home against the Cleveland Cavs, worst game of the season by far, what a huge letdown.
Anyway, World Cup is starting June 11 so I plan many trips to the rooms I have TVs (just two lol).
A
ABCMay 19, 2026
Will WC ticket prices finally drop? Full or half empty stadiums? There are too many games. How corrupt is FIFA?
G
GeorgeTBBAuthorMay 20, 2026
I did respond to this but my answer vanished!
Why haven’t the WC ticket prices dropped yet? Half empty stadiums is a very bad look for FIFA and they probably have something up their sleeves to prevent this. Yeah, so many games with the added 16 teams; first round was always too much to get through, now it is going to be ridiculous. FIFA corruption gives Trump administration a good run to be #1, sad.
J
JohnniedMay 19, 2026
Yes, bloggers going mainstream? I remember Kerr doing the AA credit card churn and then Tiffay Funk? Inmate running the asylum
G
GeorgeTBBAuthorMay 20, 2026
Yeah, the destruction comes from within. Saw Richard Kerr calling himself a hacker recently. LOL. Dude, you went to work at TPG and now Bilt, hacker should not even be a part of your vocabulary anymore, WTF! Tiffany gets there to kill the rest of the Flying Blue sweetspots…oh wait.
Comments (15)
Good morning!
Good links about bubbles and the dismal state of points / miles.
Given how much the airlines earn from their rewards program via
credit cards, it will be interesting to see what happens
when the rewards aren’t worth chasing ….
I’m kind of relieved that my balances are just about at rock bottom and unlikely to rise to previous levels. I’m about ready to call time on the game for us. We are currently on an Asian vacation, only decided a week before departure we were doing it and somehow we managed to find redemptions for 5/7 required flights in business or first. By time we get home in June that will wrap up Hyatt Globalist for another year. We’ve even managed to book Singapore business class to Europe in April 2027 and a week in London at Hyatt on points. So figure we are going out on a high, it’s been fun but time to focus on more important things. What I find most annoying about the Hyatt devaluations etc has been the ever decreasing promotions, not giving an opportunity to earn bonus points and as for the so called targeted promotions never had a sniff of any in our household yet seems the same people get targeted over and over.
Woot! Great pics and a LOT of good reading to fill the weekend and even into the next week. Again, great to meet you! Ebey’s landing is a really nice area and to be honest, I like pretty much all of Whidbey Island. I’m lucky to live near enough to go now and then.
The points and miles thing is getting tougher and I am now focusing on earning as much for the challenge to maximize my spending for the sport of it versus the need for the points. Mainly transferable ones now with a close focus on Citi. This kinda balances with the slowdown on traveling as I get older.
Thanks for doing all the work on the blog, I, and I know many others, really appreciate it!
On the topic of Greek Dad job supervisors: 30-some years ago I worked as a busboy at a seafood restaurant owned by two Greek brothers, John and Nick. Nick sold out a while ago to John, who is still there. I heard John’s getting ready to retire, so I stopped in to say hi last weekend. John gave me an enthusiastic hug and talked my ear off for about half an hour on all sorts of things and caught me up on everybody else who worked there when I was there (one guy who worked there around that time is now a key assistant for Christopher Nolan). He sent me home with some baklava. It was great to see him!
Anyway, this may or may not have something to do with my soft spot for blogs run by cranky old Greeks…
@ DML:
>>>>>>>>>> it will be interesting to see what happens when the rewards aren’t worth chasing I think we may have reached that point
Yep, I think we are reaching that point if everything remains in the same trajectory. And I am not seeing anything out there that can stop this secular trend. Unless, something like a virus…oh wait, Ebola is back right after that hantavirus one…
@ Vicky: Still managed “5/7 required flights in business or first”. And Singapore business and a whole week in London in Hyatts, wow! I need to retire to get on a spending spree because…with my dedicated earning practices it is really hard getting under 4 million banked miles/points, sad lol. I hear you about the lack of Hyatt promotions. I think that applies to pretty much across the hotels landscape. It happens when they get guests paying what they ask.
@ Carl: Yeah, Whidbey island was very nice, lots of nature and that hiking along the coast was superb. There was another little town we stopped in to look for lunch but the limited restaurants had lines and I just can’t wait in lines to eat. Felt very touristy, there was a small shop supposedly selling sushi and I swear the owner just decided to do this one day to sell way overprice stuff that looked like sushi to desperate hungry tourists, we passed.
Can’t believe I am still here blogging, I say this to myself every day.
@ NickPFD: Nice story, thanks! I am coming to terms with terms like “crankly old Greeks” LOL.
Also, how about them Detroit Pistons beating the Cavs in Cleveland to force Game 7 wow!
I’m old, and you’re a little older than me, so I can call you old.
Although a few years ago my wife’s 100-year-old grandfather reminded us that we’re not THAT old, so there’s some perspective.
Anyway, everyone please support your local restauranteurs and / or bloggers.
As we get older, what we previously thought what “old” is not the same 🙂
W has never been my vibe either, and the brand is all about vibes. W Chicago is not ideal for the night before a marathon. W Rome in the off season was ok, but still not for me. I read an article somewhere about the history and re-brand. W NYC was a hip party spot where the Hilton sisters often frequented.
Thanks for confirming. The W is definitely on the top of my list where I had consistently bad stays so I now avoid it all together
Good morning George, thanks for linking to my passport post. I really like the new thick plastic passport photo page and am looking forward to using it at those automated passport gates. If only I had an international trip planned…
Hope you and your family are doing well and have some fun summer travel plans.
Well, plans are grounded and so were the Detroit Pistons last night laying a mega egg in Game 7 at home against the Cleveland Cavs, worst game of the season by far, what a huge letdown.
Anyway, World Cup is starting June 11 so I plan many trips to the rooms I have TVs (just two lol).
Will WC ticket prices finally drop? Full or half empty stadiums? There are too many games. How corrupt is FIFA?
I did respond to this but my answer vanished!
Why haven’t the WC ticket prices dropped yet? Half empty stadiums is a very bad look for FIFA and they probably have something up their sleeves to prevent this. Yeah, so many games with the added 16 teams; first round was always too much to get through, now it is going to be ridiculous. FIFA corruption gives Trump administration a good run to be #1, sad.
Yes, bloggers going mainstream? I remember Kerr doing the AA credit card churn and then Tiffay Funk? Inmate running the asylum
Yeah, the destruction comes from within. Saw Richard Kerr calling himself a hacker recently. LOL. Dude, you went to work at TPG and now Bilt, hacker should not even be a part of your vocabulary anymore, WTF! Tiffany gets there to kill the rest of the Flying Blue sweetspots…oh wait.